Peace in Afghanistan provides legitimacy to the Taliban

Less than four years ago, in a moment of historical irony, the Taliban walked triumphantly into Kabul, 20 years after their ejection - mirroring how Emperor Babar seized the city 500 years ago.

Since the takeover, the Taliban have faced diplomatic isolation, as no country has formally recognized their government. Western powers remain unwilling to grant legitimacy to a regime that continues to enforce, what is perceived as, draconian policies on women and girls. They have also in retaliation, imposed various sanctions, frozen Afghanistan’s overseas assets, and restricted financial transactions.

The abrupt cessation of development assistance in 2021 caused Afghanistan’s economic situation to worsen significantly. This left the country struggling to finance infrastructure projects, public services, and salaries for government employees. The World Bank estimated that Afghanistan lost approximately 26 per cent of its GDP between 2021 and 2022, a contraction that pushed millions of Afghans into extreme poverty.

Paradoxically, while countries refuse to recognize the Taliban officially, many have maintained ties. Some humanitarian aid has continued to flow into the country, through non-government agencies, aimed at preventing starvation and economic collapse. Western intelligence agencies and diplomatic channels also remain in discreet contact with the Taliban on security-related matters, particularly in monitoring terrorist threats.

Pragmatic approach

Meanwhile, neighbouring countries, including China, Iran, Russia, Pakistan, Qatar and UAE have adopted a more pragmatic approach. While they have not formally recognized the Taliban as the government, they have established working relationships with the regime. Several nations have allowed the appointment of Taliban diplomats and have engaged in trade with Afghanistan. These countries view Afghanistan as a key geopolitical player and prioritize security concerns and economic ties over ideological opposition to the Taliban’s rule. The most recent entrant into this group is India, which after three years of reticence has finally held a high-level meeting in Dubai with the Taliban leadership, expected to lead to a constructive engagement

Relative stability has encouraged some of these to engage in economic ventures, particularly in mineral exploration. Relative peace has encouraged many more to join in providing humanitarian aid albeit through private channels. But given the enormity of the task, this is too little.

In 2021 55 per cent of the population faced acute hunger, which by 2024 has dropped to 28 per cent, largely due to continued international humanitarian aid and the Taliban’s focus on ensuring assistance reaches rural areas, where their core support base resides.

Despite the difficult conditions, the Taliban have managed to stabilize key financial indicators. Exports have increased, the Afghan national currency (afghani) has strengthened, and government revenues have improved due to streamlined taxation and anti-corruption measures. However, these economic stabilizers are insufficient to counteract Afghanistan’s deep financial woes. The country remains heavily dependent on foreign aid, which still accounted for about 30 per cent of GDP in 2023.

Health and education sectors have suffered because of a lack of resources and a shortage of trained personnel. Restrictions on women’s employment in healthcare have exacerbated the crisis, making it harder for female patients to receive medical attention.

The sanctions and financial restrictions imposed on the country have also disrupted supply chains, making it more difficult to import necessary supplies for essential services.

Tackling unemployment

Unemployment remains a major issue, with Afghanistan’s labour market unable to absorb the thousands of young men and women entering the workforce each year. Without substantial economic reform, the country faces the risk of further economic contraction in the coming years.

Despite economic and humanitarian struggles, one undeniable improvement under the Taliban has been the restoration of security. The end of the war has allowed greater access to rural areas for humanitarian aid and reconstruction. Unlike the previous US-backed government, which struggled with rampant corruption, the Taliban have enforced stricter anti-graft policies. Their governance remains authoritarian and deeply repressive, but it has brought a degree of order to state functions.

One of the most significant policy shifts has been the Taliban’s crackdown on drug production. The UN estimates that opium cultivation has dropped by 95 per cent, marking one of the most effective anti-drug campaigns in modern history. However, this success has come at a significant economic cost, as millions of Afghan farmers relied on opium cultivation for their livelihoods.

Afghanistan’s inability to attract large-scale foreign investment or integrate into the global financial system remains one of the biggest obstacles to sustainable economic growth.

The Taliban remain firmly in control, with no serious internal or external threats to their authority. Their unity and military cohesion make them a lasting political force in Afghanistan. They could gain legitimacy and economic stability if they continue to manage internal peace and attract foreign investment.

The international community needs to take another look at a country that remained at war against foreign intervention perpetually, for nearly 45 years and is now at peace within.

 

Source: Peace in Afghanistan provides legitimacy to the Taliban