After the Vote, Does the Kurdish Dream of Independence Have a Chance?
ERBIL, Iraq — After a century of yearning, the Kurds of Iraq have managed, at last, to pull off a vote for independence, but not without antagonizing nearly everyone in perhaps the world’s most volatile region.
The question now is whether an arid, landlocked proto-state dependent on hostile neighbors can overcome is own shortcomings — and Iraq’s disruptive retaliation — to build a viable path to independence.
With its troubled economy and dearth of democratic institutions, its prospects were already tenuous. Its best hopes lay in its oil reserves and American support, but Turkey has threatened to cut off its oil pipeline, and the relationship with the United States soured after the Kurds rebuffed its entreaties to cancel the vote.
Rather than negotiate and then seek international recognition, as the United States and others had asked, the Kurds forged ahead with the referendum.
But if anything, the vote, while satisfying the Kurds emotionally, may have set back their national aspirations.
Now, after a 93 percent “yes” vote on Monday, the Kurds are beseeching Baghdad to negotiate. Baghdad is not only refusing, but has demanded that the vote results be annulled and has moved to isolate the region, known as Kurdistan.
The last nation to win independence, landlocked South Sudan in 2011, has had a rocky start but at least was internationally recognized and had American backing. Kurdistan is all alone in a dangerous neighborhood.
For the Kurds, the vote was a potent and historic touchstone, a declaration to the world that they this is their moment and they are not turning back.
“This is an irreversible step toward independence,” said Peter W. Galbraith, a former American diplomat with close ties to the Kurdish leadership.
But the Kurds may have underestimated the depth of international opposition.
Before they had even stopped celebrating, Iraq and its two powerful neighbors, Turkey and Iran, immediately went to work to negate the vote. Iraq fears losing a third of its country, as well as oil and natural gas reserves. Turkey and Iran fear that independence for Iraq’s Kurds would embolden separatist ambitions among their own Kurdish minorities.
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