South Asia mulls cost of ongoing terrorist violence

Pune residents hold a peace rally in their city in February 2010, protesting a terror attack against a popular landmark, the German Bakery. A new report, the Global Terrorism Index, finds that South Asia remains a hotspot for violent extremism. [Saijad Hussain/Khabar]

A new survey on terrorism around the world highlights the continuing threat in South Asia, while also providing some grounds for cautious optimism – particularly in Bangladesh.

The first-of-its-kind Global Terrorism Index, produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), was published on December 4th. It surveyed 158 countries around the world and ranked them based on the number of terrorist attacks, the number of fatalities and injuries from terrorism, as well as the estimated property damage.

India and Pakistan were both among the top five countries affected by terror threats, with Pakistan at number two on the list. India was ranked fourth. The findings underscore the degree to which South Asia remains a fertile ground for extremist groups of varied ideological dispositions, ranging from Islamist extremism to Maoism.

"India not only suffers from terrorist attacks from Islamic militants over the contested area of Kashmir, but also the Maoist insurgents who use terrorist tactics to pressure the Indian state," the accompanying report said.

For one country in the region, however, the GTI brought welcome confirmation of success in its counterterrorism efforts. Bangladesh's 39th place ranking was low compared to its neighbours. Only tiny Bhutan, a Buddhist kingdom high in the Himalayas, ranked lower, at 72nd.

Nepal, which recently ended a protracted civil war and is rebuilding its civil society, ranked 22nd. Also emerging from a period of conflict is Sri Lanka, which defeated Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam extremists in 2002. It ranked 16th on the GTI.

Reduced risk helps the economy

Bangladeshis who spoke to Khabar South Asia expressed pride at the comparatively good result. They feel the ranking is a considerable feat for a country which still has low literacy rates and a significant percentage of the population below the poverty level.

Moreover, they say, the ranking will boost the country's international image and potentially yield dividends in the form of investment.

"Having a lower rank on the global terrorism index than India and other South Asian countries is certainly an indication of improvement in domestic security," said Shahjada Ahmed Tanvir, an Information Technology professional and a resident of the Uttara neighbourhood in Dhaka.

"A lower terrorism rank would encourage more foreign investment into our country as these investors will feel more secure in Bangladesh," he added.

Saad Hammadi, a journalist based in Dhaka, expressed similar hopes. "The fact that Bangladesh does not have a threat of terror would improve our diplomatic and economic ties with the rest of the world," he told Khabar.

According to M. Shahiduzzaman, a professor of International Relations at Dhaka University, the country's lower ranking reflects a "deliberate policy and strong legal actions in Bangladesh against non-democratic and fanatic entities".

At the same time, some warn against complacency. "We still need to curb fundamentalism in Bangladesh by clinging on to our roots and cultural values," said Khandaker Riazul Haque, a young entrepreneur.

Concerns remain high in India

In neighbouring India, leaders and security experts largely agreed with the high ranking given in the GTI, although some analysts stressed that the country has seen a turnaround.

"The Indian situation has improved radically over the past three years even in Jammu and Kashmir. Large swaths of the country which were formerly under the influence of Maoist guerillas are now free. The peace process with Pakistan is now on firm ground," Minister of State for Home Affairs, Mullappally Ramachandran, told to Khabar.

The improvements were noted in the GTI report. "The trend is encouraging as there has been a sharp decrease in incidents since 2009," it said.

At the same time, it cautioned India is underperforming in eight areas deemed vital to fostering stability and peace. These indicators – a well-functioning government, sound business environment, equitable distribution of resources, acceptance of the rights of others, good relations with others, free flow of information, high levels of education and low levels of corruption – are found in the Positive Peace Index, included as a supplement to the terrorism report.

"India ranks 89th out of the 108 countries in the Positive Peace Index," the IEP said. "It performs poorly on all the indicators of positive peace, where it falls below the world average although the Well-functioning Government indicator is close to the world average. It ranks third last in the region in terms of having the necessary formal and informal institutions in place which can create and sustain a peaceful environment."

The terror threat in India exerts a steep toll on the country at large because it contributes to a climate of fear, says Wilson John of the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.

"The social impact of terrorism is widely visible in urban India. Communities are becoming more 'gated' and obsessed with security," he told Khabar

Regional demographics a worry

B. Raman, a former intelligence head, said the region in general suffers from a slew of economic and social factors that can contribute to violent extremism. Among the most important is the burgeoning population.

"Indeed South Asia is a tinderbox. The biggest problem here is the demographics which support radicalisation," he told Khabar.

"South Asia's three big countries – India, Pakistan and Bangladesh – already have 1.52 billion people between them and are poised to add 226 million by 2020. This will lead to considerable stress on the resources of this region."

"The governments of these countries have failed to evolve policies which would give its young and poor population a stake in their economy," he said. "On top of that there is widespread corruption which makes the youth bitter."
Source http://khabarsouthasia.com/en_GB/articles/apwi/articles/features/2013/01/11/feature-01