Somalia overtakes Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Colombia to become world’s terror capital – Global study
Al-Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula pulls Yemen into 'extreme risk' but Greece sustains more attacks
15/11/2010
Somalia is now more at risk from terrorist attacks than Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Colombia
according to a global ranking assessing the frequency and intensity of
terrorist incidents in 196 countries. Sixteen countries are rated as
‘extreme risk’ with Somalia (1), Pakistan (2), Iraq (3), Afghanistan (4), Palestinian Occupied Territory (5), Colombia (6), Thailand (7), Philippines (8), Yemen (9) and Russia (10) at the bottom of the ranking.
The Terrorism Risk Index (TRI) is developed by global risks
advisory firm, Maplecroft, to enable organisations to identify and
monitor terrorism risks to human security and international assets. The
index uses data from June 2009 to June 2010 to assess the frequency of
terrorist incidents and the intensity of attacks, which includes the
number of victims per attack and the chances of mass casualties
occurring. It also includes a historical component assessing the number
of attacks between 2007 and 2009 and looks at whether a country is at
risk from a long-standing militant group operating there.
Somalia
dropped from 4 to 1 in this year’s index. It experienced 556 terrorist
incidents, killing a total of 1,437 people and wounding 3,408 between
June 2009 and June 2010. It has the highest number of deaths from
terrorism per population and surpassed Iraq and Afghanistan in the number of fatalities per terrorist attack. The principal threat in Somalia
comes from the Islamist al Shabaab, which has claimed responsibility
for several deadly suicide bombings, including one in February 2009,
which killed eleven Burundian soldiers on an AU peacekeeping mission. In
a recent and worrying change of tactics, the group carried out its
first major international attack in July 2010, when it bombed the
Ugandan capital, Kampala, killing at least 74 people.
Terrorism Risk Index
Rank | Country | Rating |
---|---|---|
1 | Somalia | Extreme |
2 | Pakistan | Extreme |
3 | Iraq | Extreme |
4 | Afghanistan | Extreme |
5 | P.OT | Extreme |
Rank | Country | Rating |
---|---|---|
6 | Colombia | Extreme |
7 | Thailand | Extreme |
8 | Philippines | Extreme |
9 | Yemen | Extreme |
10 | Russia | Extreme |
Source: WITS, NCTC (2010) © Maplecroft, 2010
Yemen
has dropped 13 places in the ranking and into the ‘extreme risk
category for the first time. The country has seen a very significant
increase in the number of terrorist incidents on its own soil with a
total of 109 attacks between June 2009 and June 2010. Yemen’s primary
source of terrorism is al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which
is causing growing alarm among Western intelligence services as the
group plots more attacks abroad. In October 2010 it was behind the
printer cartridge bombs hidden on cargo planes on route to the US from
Yemen. The packages were designed to go off in mid-air, but were
intercepted in the UK and Dubai.
The largest fall in rankings belongs to Greece, which dropped from 57 to 24 to overtake Spain
(27) and become the European country most at risk from terrorist
attacks. Between June 2009 and June 2010, the country experienced 180
attacks – more than took place in Yemen. Recently, small left-wing
groups have re-emerged, attacking a range of targets. Attacks tend to be
non-fatal, but they can be highly disruptive as was seen in early
November 2010, when a series of parcel bombs were addressed to embassies
in Athens as well as European leaders and institutions.
“For business, assessing exposures to terrorism is becoming
increasingly necessary,” said Maplecroft CEO, Professor Alyson Warhurst.
“Business assets are vulnerable in certain high risk countries. For
example, recent months have seen attacks on oil and gas workers in the
Niger Delta, mining operations in Chhattisgarh, India and the failed
attempt to conceal devices in the freight of cargo planes flying out of Yemen.
The Terrorist Risk Index, along with our global sub national mapping of
terrorist incidents, provides organisations with helpful tools in the
evaluation of these risks.”
None of the major Western economies fall within the high or ‘extreme risk’ bracket – USA (33), France (44) and United Kingdom (46) all remain in the ‘medium risk’ category, whilst Canada (67) and Germany (70) are rated as ‘low risk.’
Maplecroft has a separate index measuring human rights violations
by state and private security in all countries. The Security Forces and
Human Rights Index is available as part of Maplecroft's Human Rights
Risk Atlas.
Email info@maplecroft.com for more information or call +44 (0)1225 420000.
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