Tensions flare between Kurds and Baghdad

Over the last 48 hours, tensions and rumors of conflict have risen between Baghdad’s central government and the Kurdistan Regional Government’s autonomous region. 

This comes more than two weeks after Iraq's Kurds held an independence referendum. Since then, the Iraqi government has signaled to the Kurds that it wouldn't accept any kind of secession, by threatening to close the border and shutting down two international airports in the Kurdish region.

On October 11, the Kurdistan Region Security Council tweeted that Iraqi forces, including the Shia militias called Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) and Federal Police, were “preparing a major attack in South/West Kirkuk and North Mosul on Kurdistan.” Overnight, one road linking Mosul and the Kurdish region was temporarily blocked amid fears of conflict. The area around Kirkuk is particularly sensitive because Baghdad claims Kirkuk should not be part of the Kurdish autonomous region. 

But Peshmerga forces have been defending Kirkuk and the areas around it from the Islamic State for three years. As IS was defeated in Kirkuk in 2016, Kurdish forces in areas around the province, such as at Tuz Khurmatu, came face-to-face with the Iranian-backed Shia militias that have been assisting Baghdad against IS. Clashes between Kurds and Shia Turkmen killed dozens. Since then, many of the Shia militias have become officially part of the Iraqi security forces, making any clashes more than just a local issue.

On October 4, Iraqi forces, including the PMU, drove ISIS from Hawija, one of its last strongholds in Iraq. Kurdish forces who hold positions overlooking Hawija watched as the Iraqis cleared IS. Many IS fighters fled and surrendered to the Kurds, fearing reprisals from militias. This has created a combustible situation, with Baghdad’s rhetoric threatening Kurdistan and condemning it for the referendum, there are large numbers of armed fighters from numerous groups and units west and south of Kirkuk. The Peshmerga have sent thousands of men to bolster the area around Kirkuk.

This video shows significant Iraqi forces and PMF deployments today to South Kirkuk. The international community's silence emboldens Iraq. pic.twitter.com/oN4S0oheLE

— KR Security Council (@KRSCPress) October 13, 2017

After the Kurdistan Region Security Council claimed there was a “significant Iraqi military and PMU build up” south of Kirkuk, US Major General Pat White, commanding general of the Combined Joint Forces Land Component Command, tweeted on October 12 that he had “zero proof that any senior Iraqi government has sent threatening messages to Kurds.” 

The “plan all along has been to mass Iraqi security forces close to the Pesh [Peshmerga] and PUK [another unit of Peshmerga]; to close the distance and deny Daesh [IS] freedom of maneuver,” he added in a press conference.

"PUK" refers to Peshmerga forces aligned with the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, one of the largest political parties in the Kurdish region that dominates parts of the Kirkuk region. The increase in Iraqi forces near the Kurdish region was therefore a natural outcome of the Hawija battle, in the US-led coalition's view.

Despite the conflicting statements, the Kurds continued to warn that Iraqi tanks, Humvees and mortars were being moved close to oil fields and an air base around Taza Khurmatu, near a village called Bashir. 

Kirkuk is one of the largest oil producing areas in Iraq, and as such the conflict is not only ethnic and sectarian, but also a strategic one for Baghdad.

On October 13, the Peshmerga General Command released a statement urging Peshmerga forces to be ready to defend Kurdistan. 

“Last night, the forces of Hashd al-Shaabi (PMU) and some Iraqi forces started moving and getting ready to attack the places under the control of Peshmerga around Kirkuk,” the statement read. 

The Peshmerga urged Baghdad to solve the crises through negotiation.

At the same time, Kurdish forces around Taza Khurmatu quietly withdrew from several positions to what they said were better prepared defensive lines. 

On October 13, photos and video circulating on social media showed Shia militias walking around formed Kurdish positions. They graffitied Kurdish flags, and one soldier from Iraq’s Emergency Response Division was photographed in an office next to a banner of the late Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani. A sign indicating the area had been a headquarters for the “5th battalion” of a Peshmerga unit was shown knocked on the ground.

These kinds of images will stoke anger in the Kurdish region and demand a response. 

But the fact that no shots have been fired between Kurds and Iraqi units shows the calls for calm from both sides and fears of what a conflict might bring are holding sway for now. 

For the US-led coalition, any clashes between its partners in Erbil and Baghdad would be a huge crises. The coalition is seeking to destroy IS in western Iraq’s Anbar province, it’s last stronghold. 

“ISIS is on its heels,” tweeted Major General White on October 12. He pointed out that “we continue with training the Peshmerga to better enable the Iraqi Security Forces to Defeat Daesh [IS].”

Source: http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Tensions-flare-between-Kurds-and-Baghdad-507368