Islamic State gains traction in al-Qaeda’s old stomping grounds
The Islamic State's practical focus may be on Syria and Iraq right now, but there's some clear signs that their ideas have appeal further afield. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi's self-proclaimed caliphate has found pockets of support far and wide, from inner-city Britain to the island paradise of the Maldives.
Now, there are increasing signs that the group is gaining support in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where the Taliban, an Islamist group with a local focus, and al-Qaeda, a global jihadist militia, currently hold sway. Many are now wondering whether the Islamic State, which skews younger and has attracted more foreign support than other extremist groups, could find a foothold in the region – and if so, what that would mean for the global jihadist movement.
Radio Free Afghanistan reported Friday that they were recently sent a video that appears to show three masked militants in Afghanistan declaring themselves the Islamic Organization of Great Afghanistan and pledging allegiance to their "caliph" Baghdadi and the Islamic State. Notably, the group, wearing masks and appearing in front of a black flag like that used by the Islamic State, say the Taliban is working for Pakistan, which many Afghans believe has designs on their country.
As Radio Free Afghanistan notes, the provenance of the video can't be proven. But there is certainly a potential audience for the Islamic State's ideas in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and there have been other signs of support in the country: Reuters reported this month that leaflets espousing the Islamic State caliphate had been dropped in Pakistan, and that one prominent Taliban figure had told the new agency that they would consider pledging allegiance to it.
For al-Qaeda, an Islamic State presence in their back yard would surely be an unwelcome development. While the two groups were once linked (the group that is now the Islamic State was once known as al-Qaeda in Iraq), Ayman al-Zawahiri's more-established group has largely been sidetracked by Baghdadi's upstart organization.
As Aaron Y. Zelin outlined in a paper for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, the two groups differed significantly in their view of various things, including the strategic use of violence and the role of Islamic government. "The two groups are now in an open war for supremacy of the global jihadist movement," Zelin wrote.
In Syria, al-Qaeda's proxy, Jabhat al-Nusra, fights against the Islamic State. Zawahiri's apparent decision to send al-Qaeda veterans, what theU.S. calls the "Khorasan" group, to Syria may be an acknowledgement of how hard that fight has been. And al-Qaeda's recent announcement of a new wing in South Asia, known as al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, was widely interpreted as an attempt to combat the Islamic State's own efforts in the region (an audacious attack on U.S. vessels that was claimed by the new al-Qaeda group shows their ambition).
Al-Qaeda might hope for loyalty from their supporters in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but affiliates further afield, such as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) have already adopted a more ambiguous line on the Islamic State than the core group. And Iran recently told the BBC that it had arrested Afghani and Pakistani citizens crossing its border, apparently hoping to join the Islamic State.
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