If Erdogan falls

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears to be sinking deeper into a political mire of his own making. His former ally and foreign minister and now president, Abdullah Gul, has begun to intervene in the rising tide of scandal around the Erdogan government.

Gul used an otherwise innocuous gathering of Turkish ambassadors at the presidential palace to warn that Turkey’s foreign policy needed a “reset”. Without referring specifically to the corruption scandal that now taints Erdogan’s administration, and his controversial moves against police and prosecutors who are pursuing it, the Turkish president said that past experience had demonstrated that domestic crises have an impact on the effectiveness of foreign policy.

The rabbit punch in Gul’s speech came with the words: “This is why it is very important to study these matters carefully, and for a country to attain the highest standards possible in democracy, freedoms and the rule of law, with a developing economy that complements these”

Erdogan, who was confidently expecting to be directly elected this year to a new and more powerful presidential role, is suddenly fighting for his political life.  A year ago Erdogan was still a shining example of  economic and political probity, whose moderate Islamic AK Party seemed set to win the backing of Turkish voters for the fourth time in a row.  His political model was viewed with considerable enthusiasm in the Arab Spring countries. And now all of this is in ruins.

In what appears to be a damage-limitation exercise, he has launched what must be a doomed attempt to bring the military back on board by agreeing to have a review of the two mass trials of officers and officials convicted of planning a coup. His aim was to drive the Turkish military out of politics. The irony is that he seems now to be calculating that if he can lure them back, he can enjoy their support. 

Erdogan is being shown to have feet of clay. But in his humiliation, it should not be forgotten what he has achieved and what is being put at risk by his potential downfall.  His settlement with the PKK was a major triumph which could not have been achieved had the military still enjoyed their old political clout. Put bluntly, Turkey’s generals enjoyed their vicious little eastern range war with the Kurds, since it kept the huge Turkish military on its toes and gave it ready access to the treasury for more funding. Erdogan cut a deal with PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan which although under great pressure, is still just about holding.

However, more importantly, Erdogan has been unwavering in his insistence that there can be no political solution in Syria without the departure of Assad and his creatures. Now as Washington sashays away from support for the Syrian opposition because of the presence of Al-Qaeda terrorists, the Russians and Chinese look to be winning the argument that, far from being a brutal dictator attempting to bludgeon his own people into submission,  Assad is actually a bastion against terrorism who deserves international support.

Such hokum is the antithesis of everything for which the Arab League has worked from the very beginning of this horrific conflict. And Erdogan has been there, unflinching in his insistence that Assad must go. But if Erdogan goes, does that insistence go too?

Source http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentid=20140117192760