Terror politics in the Philippines
Source: Atimes
MINDANAO - A series of mysterious bombings on the southern island of Mindanao has raised speculation that foreign-backed, local Muslim terror groups are ramping up and expanding their operations against government forces. However, it is just as likely the explosions are part and parcel of the region's tumultuous and often violent politics.
No group has come forth to claim responsibility for the bombings, two of which detonated near the headquarters of the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). Philippine intelligence reports have claimed that the incidents are linked to terror suspect Basit Usman, a reputed member of the Indonesian terror group Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), and his trained cohorts from the notorious Abu Sayyaf group.
Police say they are now hunting some 20 terror suspects who reportedly have been trained by Usman and recently graduated from a bomb making
course. These newly minted bomb makers have reportedly been trained to conceal
bombs in liquefied petroleum gas tanks used for cooking and other terror
techniques novel to the region, police say.
Authorities also believe that while the recent bombings have been limited to Cotabato province, the attacks have also likely served as test missions in preparation for bigger terror operations, potentially targeting the capital Manila and other urban centers. They have claimed that several JI members have recently arrived in Mindanao, including Beduh Abdul, a reputed classmate of Basit during their 1994 elite force training in bomb making, to execute the missions.
However, there is a gaping hole in those assessments: US intelligence reports claim that Usman was killed in a Central Intelligence Agency-led drone strike in Pakistan in January.
Security analysis firm Pacific Strategies and Assessments (PSA) wrote in a recent report that numerous past reports from Philippine authorities were based on "presumptions that all bomb blasts suggest foreign terrorist group connectivity, while warning Metro Manila was a likely future target". PSA notes that Philippine officials have often later retracted or contradicted earlier alarmist reports.
In response to such criticism, Philippine police say they now have video proof of actual terrorist bomb-making exercises, although they won't verify where or when the video was made.
Presidential spokesperson Edwin Lacierda, citing reports from national security adviser Cesar Garcia, said last week that Abu Sayyaf is now working closely with JI but that attacks on Manila were not imminent. He didn't elaborate on the information, revealing only that the intelligence had been shared among members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Political motivations
Other sources view the recent bombings differently. One source familiar with the Mindanao's rough and tumble local politics believes the recent attacks are the work of a local official in Cotabato province who he declined to name for fear of reprisal. He contends the recent bombings are more accurately interpreted as election-related violence than terrorist operations.
"If it was terrorism you would have numerous casualties," the source said. "Obviously, the bombings were not meant to hurt many people."
The source contends that the bombings are a ploy to make the situation in Mindanao appear more volatile than it really is and to discredit the current ARMM chairman's ability to maintain security. Once a new head of the ARMM is elected, the source ventures, the anonymous bombings will likely cease.
The ARMM election was scheduled for August 8 but President Benigno Aquino and his allies in congress pushed for its postponement to synchronize the poll with mid-term elections due in May 2013. Congress instead allowed Aquino to appoint an officer-in-charge (OIC) who will replace the outgoing ARMM chairman, whose term ended on September 30, and remain in power until the next election.
There were initially 50 candidates considered for the OIC post, including former leaders of Muslim rebel groups and members of warring political clans. By mid-September the list was trimmed to seven and competition between top candidates for the politically powerful post heightened regional tensions and may have contributed to the bombings.
Aquino was reportedly set to name an OIC before leaving for the US until a Supreme Court decision ruled against the legality of postponing the ARMM election until 2013. The ruling declared the executive appointment of an interim OIC was unconstitutional and that the incumbent should have been allowed to serve until a new head was elected.
The Philippine government has long sought an end to autonomy-driven conflicts in Mindanao. With frequent government clashes with insurgents, fighting among competing political clans and roving kidnapping and extortion gangs that target foreigners, the news from Mindanao often puts the country's image in a bad and unstable light. Instability has greatly deterred both local and foreign investment.
According to Florangel Rosario-Braid, a noted scholar and academician, poverty is still the root cause of conflict in Mindanao. Decades of neglect and war have pushed the poverty rate to almost half of the population, making the region a fertile recruitment ground for insurgent and criminal groups. The poverty rate in ARMM is estimated at 45.7% while access to water, electricity and social services is among the country's lowest.
In a bid to stabilize the region through greater development, the government vowed to spend 30% of its annual infrastructure budget in Mindanao. Due to ongoing instability and government corruption, only a fraction of those earmarked funds have actually been spent in Mindanao. Notably none of the Aquino administration's major 32 public private partnership infrastructure projects is scheduled for Mindanao, according to Crisanto Frianeza, secretary general of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
Although 75% of Mindanao's population is Christian, Muslim insurgent groups insist they should be given autonomy over the resource-rich island, an area they claim as their ancestral homeland dating to before the arrival of colonial Spain in the 15th century.
Many observers believe that the government's latest attempt to find a settlement with the rebel Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), a group fighting for autonomy, is doomed to failure since the MILF wants to create and govern a sub-state from territory it controls. Government negotiators have insisted that the Philippine constitution doesn't allow the creation of a sub-state and instead has offered an "enhanced autonomy" agreement.
Aquino earlier hinted he might be open to amending the constitution to bring peace to Mindanao. But the island's majority Catholic population is certain to oppose any changes that allow Muslim rebels to establish a sub-state. "Christians have stronger prejudices and biases against Muslims than the other way around," said a former mayor of Mindanao's General Santos City.
As long as those sentiments prevail, so too will instability and occasional unexplained bombs.
Joel D Adriano is an independent consultant and award-winning freelance journalist. He was a sub-editor for the business section of The Manila Times and writes for ASEAN BizTimes, Safe Democracy and People's Tonight.
MINDANAO - A series of mysterious bombings on the southern island of Mindanao has raised speculation that foreign-backed, local Muslim terror groups are ramping up and expanding their operations against government forces. However, it is just as likely the explosions are part and parcel of the region's tumultuous and often violent politics.
No group has come forth to claim responsibility for the bombings, two of which detonated near the headquarters of the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). Philippine intelligence reports have claimed that the incidents are linked to terror suspect Basit Usman, a reputed member of the Indonesian terror group Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), and his trained cohorts from the notorious Abu Sayyaf group.
Authorities also believe that while the recent bombings have been limited to Cotabato province, the attacks have also likely served as test missions in preparation for bigger terror operations, potentially targeting the capital Manila and other urban centers. They have claimed that several JI members have recently arrived in Mindanao, including Beduh Abdul, a reputed classmate of Basit during their 1994 elite force training in bomb making, to execute the missions.
However, there is a gaping hole in those assessments: US intelligence reports claim that Usman was killed in a Central Intelligence Agency-led drone strike in Pakistan in January.
Security analysis firm Pacific Strategies and Assessments (PSA) wrote in a recent report that numerous past reports from Philippine authorities were based on "presumptions that all bomb blasts suggest foreign terrorist group connectivity, while warning Metro Manila was a likely future target". PSA notes that Philippine officials have often later retracted or contradicted earlier alarmist reports.
In response to such criticism, Philippine police say they now have video proof of actual terrorist bomb-making exercises, although they won't verify where or when the video was made.
Presidential spokesperson Edwin Lacierda, citing reports from national security adviser Cesar Garcia, said last week that Abu Sayyaf is now working closely with JI but that attacks on Manila were not imminent. He didn't elaborate on the information, revealing only that the intelligence had been shared among members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Political motivations
Other sources view the recent bombings differently. One source familiar with the Mindanao's rough and tumble local politics believes the recent attacks are the work of a local official in Cotabato province who he declined to name for fear of reprisal. He contends the recent bombings are more accurately interpreted as election-related violence than terrorist operations.
"If it was terrorism you would have numerous casualties," the source said. "Obviously, the bombings were not meant to hurt many people."
The source contends that the bombings are a ploy to make the situation in Mindanao appear more volatile than it really is and to discredit the current ARMM chairman's ability to maintain security. Once a new head of the ARMM is elected, the source ventures, the anonymous bombings will likely cease.
The ARMM election was scheduled for August 8 but President Benigno Aquino and his allies in congress pushed for its postponement to synchronize the poll with mid-term elections due in May 2013. Congress instead allowed Aquino to appoint an officer-in-charge (OIC) who will replace the outgoing ARMM chairman, whose term ended on September 30, and remain in power until the next election.
There were initially 50 candidates considered for the OIC post, including former leaders of Muslim rebel groups and members of warring political clans. By mid-September the list was trimmed to seven and competition between top candidates for the politically powerful post heightened regional tensions and may have contributed to the bombings.
Aquino was reportedly set to name an OIC before leaving for the US until a Supreme Court decision ruled against the legality of postponing the ARMM election until 2013. The ruling declared the executive appointment of an interim OIC was unconstitutional and that the incumbent should have been allowed to serve until a new head was elected.
The Philippine government has long sought an end to autonomy-driven conflicts in Mindanao. With frequent government clashes with insurgents, fighting among competing political clans and roving kidnapping and extortion gangs that target foreigners, the news from Mindanao often puts the country's image in a bad and unstable light. Instability has greatly deterred both local and foreign investment.
According to Florangel Rosario-Braid, a noted scholar and academician, poverty is still the root cause of conflict in Mindanao. Decades of neglect and war have pushed the poverty rate to almost half of the population, making the region a fertile recruitment ground for insurgent and criminal groups. The poverty rate in ARMM is estimated at 45.7% while access to water, electricity and social services is among the country's lowest.
In a bid to stabilize the region through greater development, the government vowed to spend 30% of its annual infrastructure budget in Mindanao. Due to ongoing instability and government corruption, only a fraction of those earmarked funds have actually been spent in Mindanao. Notably none of the Aquino administration's major 32 public private partnership infrastructure projects is scheduled for Mindanao, according to Crisanto Frianeza, secretary general of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
Although 75% of Mindanao's population is Christian, Muslim insurgent groups insist they should be given autonomy over the resource-rich island, an area they claim as their ancestral homeland dating to before the arrival of colonial Spain in the 15th century.
Many observers believe that the government's latest attempt to find a settlement with the rebel Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), a group fighting for autonomy, is doomed to failure since the MILF wants to create and govern a sub-state from territory it controls. Government negotiators have insisted that the Philippine constitution doesn't allow the creation of a sub-state and instead has offered an "enhanced autonomy" agreement.
Aquino earlier hinted he might be open to amending the constitution to bring peace to Mindanao. But the island's majority Catholic population is certain to oppose any changes that allow Muslim rebels to establish a sub-state. "Christians have stronger prejudices and biases against Muslims than the other way around," said a former mayor of Mindanao's General Santos City.
As long as those sentiments prevail, so too will instability and occasional unexplained bombs.
Joel D Adriano is an independent consultant and award-winning freelance journalist. He was a sub-editor for the business section of The Manila Times and writes for ASEAN BizTimes, Safe Democracy and People's Tonight.
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