Revolutions in Arab world not threatening Caucasus
News.Az interviews Emin Salihi, research worker at the Nigde Turkish University.
Several observers believe that the United States attempts to export revolutions from Middle East and North Africa to post-Soviet states. Is the repetition of these events possible in post-Soviet countries, including in South Caucasus?
I am largely binding the recent revolutions not with political figures, but the global economic transformations. The international capitalist system is dictating its rules demanding reforms from the states, which is why, these countries need reforms in their social structures.
Additionally, in early 2000, Iraq, Iran and Syria demanded to use euro instead of dollar in oil selling. After that the United States invaded Iraq. I believe that these two facts were no coincidence.
The states involvement in political system is proportional to their participation in conflicts. In other words, if any country is against the established system, its participants including the United states will force this country to obey.
All the same, while there is a factor of presence of strong Armenia, changes in the region in foreign interference will not be possible. In addition, by my observations, people of South Caucasus do not demand any changes in this direction. The South Caucasus countries keep control over the processes in their countries.
Can the revolutions in Middle East and North Africa bring representatives of radical religious groups to power?
The issue about who is going to rule the countries after revolutions is an important thing.
As is known, people in Middle East provide great support to religious groups. Therefore, regardless of who comes to power in these countries, they will have to represent interests of these religious groups or he will feel the need for their support. As for these groups, they will be unable to take radical positions. In the modern period, these groups will rely on Islam values but not contradict to the international system. The example can be the countries of the Persian gulf, headed with Saudi Arabia where religious groups are ruling. But these groups rule their countries in conditions of peace and accord with international system. Another example can be Turkey, which is a model for the regional countries. The Party of Justice and Development in Turkey is Islamic. But the economic policy held by this party relies on neoliberalism. I think that the United States and West will apply the Turkish model of state regulation in the Middle East. Additionally, the United States will not want radical Islamists to come to power after the revolution in Middle East.
Do you think there are any grounds in post-Soviet countries for the same popular uprising like in some of the Arab states ? And which countries of the CIS are under the biggest threat?
South Caucasus has long lived within Russia. At that time the countries formed a secular system. As is known, Azerbaijan created a secular state even before Turkey. Therefore, I do not think any religious revolutions are possible in these countries including Azerbaijan. We should not forget that revolutions in Middle East and North Africa got a serious support of people. Then, this popular movement got an exterior support. The possible of external aid to South Caucasus is low, because I still observe Russia’s domination in this region.
Source http://www.news.az/articles/politics/47818
Several observers believe that the United States attempts to export revolutions from Middle East and North Africa to post-Soviet states. Is the repetition of these events possible in post-Soviet countries, including in South Caucasus?
I am largely binding the recent revolutions not with political figures, but the global economic transformations. The international capitalist system is dictating its rules demanding reforms from the states, which is why, these countries need reforms in their social structures.
Additionally, in early 2000, Iraq, Iran and Syria demanded to use euro instead of dollar in oil selling. After that the United States invaded Iraq. I believe that these two facts were no coincidence.
The states involvement in political system is proportional to their participation in conflicts. In other words, if any country is against the established system, its participants including the United states will force this country to obey.
All the same, while there is a factor of presence of strong Armenia, changes in the region in foreign interference will not be possible. In addition, by my observations, people of South Caucasus do not demand any changes in this direction. The South Caucasus countries keep control over the processes in their countries.
Can the revolutions in Middle East and North Africa bring representatives of radical religious groups to power?
The issue about who is going to rule the countries after revolutions is an important thing.
As is known, people in Middle East provide great support to religious groups. Therefore, regardless of who comes to power in these countries, they will have to represent interests of these religious groups or he will feel the need for their support. As for these groups, they will be unable to take radical positions. In the modern period, these groups will rely on Islam values but not contradict to the international system. The example can be the countries of the Persian gulf, headed with Saudi Arabia where religious groups are ruling. But these groups rule their countries in conditions of peace and accord with international system. Another example can be Turkey, which is a model for the regional countries. The Party of Justice and Development in Turkey is Islamic. But the economic policy held by this party relies on neoliberalism. I think that the United States and West will apply the Turkish model of state regulation in the Middle East. Additionally, the United States will not want radical Islamists to come to power after the revolution in Middle East.
Do you think there are any grounds in post-Soviet countries for the same popular uprising like in some of the Arab states ? And which countries of the CIS are under the biggest threat?
South Caucasus has long lived within Russia. At that time the countries formed a secular system. As is known, Azerbaijan created a secular state even before Turkey. Therefore, I do not think any religious revolutions are possible in these countries including Azerbaijan. We should not forget that revolutions in Middle East and North Africa got a serious support of people. Then, this popular movement got an exterior support. The possible of external aid to South Caucasus is low, because I still observe Russia’s domination in this region.
Source http://www.news.az/articles/politics/47818
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