Sudan: Why South Has Failed to Blossom - Failed Projects, Wary Investors

Source: All Africa

Nairobi — Weeks after Sudan's election in April, John Chuol Dhol stood before the Government of Southern Sudan's Cabinet which was in the process of discussing the region's food preparedness.

"I said, 'Where is the money? Why do we depend on donors and the EU?'"

Dhol, the Director-General for Agriculture in the Government of Southern Sudan, recalls: "I was mad."

Later that month, as he was sworn-in as the President of the Government of Southern Sudan, Salva Kiir made agriculture a Number 1 priority after security for his government.

He said he did not expect resources from oil to be spent on building "bureaucratic empires," air-conditioned vehicles or on travel abroad. "They have to be utilised for uplifting the life of the rural populace and raising their capacity to better till the land..."

Over the past five years, officials have showcased agriculture as the future of the region.

At one point in 2008, addressing a diplomatic delegation, the information minister (then regional co-operation minister) said Southern Sudan had the capacity to provide food for the entire continent.

Yet the possibility of a food crisis following the referendum is on the minds of many here, where 4.7 million people are food insecure.

At the largest North-South border point in Aweil, the North Sudan food imports are ubiquitous.

At the border with Uganda, trucks drive in daily ferrying food.

The failure to tap agriculture potential reflects the region's failure to tap into its other potential.

For instance, they say they have enough potential to supply power to the entire region. Or that they have enough phosphorus to supply cement to the continent.

Or that they have millions of cattle to start a beef industry. But that's where it always ends. Nobody seems to know the steps that lead to utilising that potential.

Now, for some, the chickens are coming home to roost as South Sudan gets set to become a new nation.

Whichever way the referendum goes, the South is damned, is how James Kok Ruea, the Minister for Humanitarian Affairs, put it in August.

A disruption of the Referendum would lead to north-south tensions, and, hence, more food needs.

A vote for unity would lead to trouble from disaffected southerners, and a vote for separation would see an increase in returnees, leading to severe food needs.

Officials often dream of investors coming to build mega farms, but it is nearly impossible for investors to get land because the "community," the final decision maker, is not well defined.

They want farmers to step up production, but roads to ferry produce to the markets are lacking.

Farmers want to hire tractors, but can't afford the overheads. Farmers want loans, but hardly any have collateral.

Farmers want to step up the use of the ox-plough, but they won't let their bulls pull the plough.

The challenges mean that it's not easy to invest in agriculture -- whether as an national or as a foreigner.

First, officials didn't take agriculture seriously right from the start.

"Our budget is just enough to pay salaries," says Ayii Bol, State Minister of Agriculture, Aweil.

"We're sending them salaries every month but they are not producing because there is no money and no budget," Dhol agrees.

For instance, the budget for the Ministry of Agriculture is 0.8 percent of the region's annual budget.

This translates into 76 million Sudanese pounds (about $30 million), compared with 400 million pounds ($160 million) for Prisons, one of the many departments under the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

The region lacks centres to test seeds. Even agricultural schemes have been abandoned.

The Aweil Rice Scheme needs a budget of $50 million to be up and running. The scheme produced 500,000 kgs of rice in its first year in 1978 before war took its toll on it.

Despite this, the government still dreams of agriculture bringing in 70 per cent of revenue.

"We're an agriculture country," says Dhol. "We are not an oil country."

But then again oil is easy money. Ninety-seven per cent of the government revenue comes from oil.

On the other hand, building the food sector requires putting money into infrastructure such as roads and weather stations.

At the start of the interim period, even rainfall data did not exist. At one regional conference on agriculture, Dhol raised the issue.

"They looked at me like this: 'Eh, you don't have rain gauges and you are agriculturalists?'"

If the government has not taken agriculture seriously, neither have foreign investors.

Investors, analysts largely agree, kept off pending the referendum, unclear land laws and lack of an investment law.

This has meant that production has fallen on the shoulders of smallholders. But these lack collateral.

Lino Loku Gori, the Director-General for Planning, says they have encouraged bankers to lend to farmers.

"But the bankers are afraid: How will they recover the money?" says Gori.

A case in point: Some 55 tractors were bought by the government in 2007, and another 200 recently.

Under the deal, farmers pay about $1,500, upfront and about $6,000 per year for five years.

But tractors come with the baggage of a driver, turnboy and a mechanic -- and all need money.

"We've given tractors to people, they are lying in the houses, not working on farms," Dhol says.