Terrorism: the threat shifts to Yemen – and Africa
Source: Guardian
The Saudis tipped Britain off about last week's bomb – but as new dangers emerge, Britain needs to cultivate new friends
The Saudis tipped Britain off about last week's bomb – but as new dangers emerge, Britain needs to cultivate new friends
East Midlands Airport: Britain was tipped-off about the bomb by the Saudis. It will need to cultivate other friendly informants to stay ahead of the plotters. Photograph: Mark Jones/Newsteam Four years ago, Saudi Arabia was reported by London to have threatened to stop supplying vital intelligence to the UK about al-Qaida unless the Serious Fraud Office dropped an investigation into a huge BAE arms deal with the country.
It transpired that Tony Blair had written a "secret and personal" letter to Lord Goldsmith, the attorney general, demanding that he stop the investigation. He said there was a "real and immediate risk of a collapse in UK/Saudi security, intelligence and diplomatic co-operation". The SFO investigation was dropped. Whether the Saudis would have carried out such a threat is a moot point. What is clear is that MI5 and MI6 have relied on Riyadh to foil terrorist plots.
Last week, bombs were placed on two planes, one landing at East Midlands airport. The CIA and MI6 were alerted to the plot by the Saudis, according to counter-terrorist sources. Today, the home secretary, Theresa May, described a man arrested in Britain earlier this year as an "associate" of al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
AQAP, which is based in Yemen, has mounted a campaign against the "far enemy" – the US and the UK. It is said to have recruited the "underpants bomber" who allegedly tried to bring down an airliner over Detroit last Christmas. Last year, it claimed credit for the attempted assassination of Saudi Arabia's counterterrorism chief, Prince Muhammad Bin Nayef.
But AQAP's ultimate aim is to bring down the House of Saud. Unsurprisingly, the Saudis are devoting huge resources to combating that group, monitoring the border with Yemen and recruiting informants. It can be assumed that it was through these routes that the Saudis received the intelligence that allowed them to tip off MI6.
There is a reason why it is better, or easier, for the west's intelligence services to rely on the local security forces rather than send in their own officers. It is much less contentious, an experienced counter-terrorist official observed, for the Saudis to be seen helping Yemen, a neighbouring Muslim country, than westernerstoday. The UK can help by providing spying kit to Saudi Arabia and Yemen, with the latter also benefiting from a large increase in aid from Andrew Mitchell's Department for International Development as part of the government's new national security strategy.
"We will invest in conflict prevention and stopping terrorist plots overseas," May stressed, echoing a point emphasised last week by Sir John Sawers. In the first speech by a serving head of MI6, Sawers said: "Our intelligence effort needs to go where the threat is."
That is no longer Afghanistan or the tribal areas of Pakistan. It has shifted to Yemen and Somalia, and is moving to other regions of Africa. Bombing there may have played a part. But as General Sir David Richards, the new chief of defence staff, suggested recently, bombing these countries is hardly a good idea. In future, that means dealing with people who live there and in neighbouring countries, such as Saudi Arabia.
It transpired that Tony Blair had written a "secret and personal" letter to Lord Goldsmith, the attorney general, demanding that he stop the investigation. He said there was a "real and immediate risk of a collapse in UK/Saudi security, intelligence and diplomatic co-operation". The SFO investigation was dropped. Whether the Saudis would have carried out such a threat is a moot point. What is clear is that MI5 and MI6 have relied on Riyadh to foil terrorist plots.
Last week, bombs were placed on two planes, one landing at East Midlands airport. The CIA and MI6 were alerted to the plot by the Saudis, according to counter-terrorist sources. Today, the home secretary, Theresa May, described a man arrested in Britain earlier this year as an "associate" of al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
AQAP, which is based in Yemen, has mounted a campaign against the "far enemy" – the US and the UK. It is said to have recruited the "underpants bomber" who allegedly tried to bring down an airliner over Detroit last Christmas. Last year, it claimed credit for the attempted assassination of Saudi Arabia's counterterrorism chief, Prince Muhammad Bin Nayef.
But AQAP's ultimate aim is to bring down the House of Saud. Unsurprisingly, the Saudis are devoting huge resources to combating that group, monitoring the border with Yemen and recruiting informants. It can be assumed that it was through these routes that the Saudis received the intelligence that allowed them to tip off MI6.
There is a reason why it is better, or easier, for the west's intelligence services to rely on the local security forces rather than send in their own officers. It is much less contentious, an experienced counter-terrorist official observed, for the Saudis to be seen helping Yemen, a neighbouring Muslim country, than westernerstoday. The UK can help by providing spying kit to Saudi Arabia and Yemen, with the latter also benefiting from a large increase in aid from Andrew Mitchell's Department for International Development as part of the government's new national security strategy.
"We will invest in conflict prevention and stopping terrorist plots overseas," May stressed, echoing a point emphasised last week by Sir John Sawers. In the first speech by a serving head of MI6, Sawers said: "Our intelligence effort needs to go where the threat is."
That is no longer Afghanistan or the tribal areas of Pakistan. It has shifted to Yemen and Somalia, and is moving to other regions of Africa. Bombing there may have played a part. But as General Sir David Richards, the new chief of defence staff, suggested recently, bombing these countries is hardly a good idea. In future, that means dealing with people who live there and in neighbouring countries, such as Saudi Arabia.
Comments