Turkey is facing a difficult period with respect to ties with
its triangle of neighbors: Iran, Syria and Iraq. Their current domestic
situations and foreign policies are now endangering Turkey's own
domestic stability and foreign policy. A polarization now appears to
exist in this regard and the triangle of Iran, Syria and Iraq's Shiite
population maintain somewhat similar attitudes vis-à-vis Turkey. The
major reasons behind this state of affairs are regional power rivalries,
conflicting attitudes towards the Arab Spring, and a mutually held
stance in relation to the West. Developments currently unfolding within
the triangle are now seen by Turkey as a cause of grave concern that
will be difficult to overcome.
Prior to the Arab Spring reaching
Syria - at which point it then became Turkey's nightmare, an amalgam of
Turkish political, economic and security interests in Syria were well
protected thanks to the AKP's foreign policy. Furthermore, Turkey was
increasingly engaging Syria in international politics and positioning
itself as the principle interlocutor between it and the West, thereby
distancing Syria from Iran's sphere of influence while increasing its
own importance to western countries and the international community.
Ironically,
Turkey's excellent relations with Syria also helped it to develop ties
with Iran and Iraq. Such developments explain why Turkey initially
strained every nerve to shield the Syrian regime. Currently, however,
Syria's continuing refusal to accede to Turkish demands has made
bilateral relations increasingly tense, to the point where Turkey has
lost confidence in the Syrian regime.
Amid this complex
environment Turkey has striven to consolidate its regional clout,
approaching the United States and coordinating with western and Sunni
powerhouses over Syria. During a major tour, Turkish Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan tried to sell Turkish secularism to the changing
countries of the region, encouraging them to benefit from the Turkish
model, while at the same time making an extremely controversial
geo-strategic decision by agreeing to host the early warning radar of
NATO's anti-missile system. Turkey has also liaised closely with
influential western and Gulf countries, declaring its support for the
anti-Syrian regime protestors and expressing Turkish dismay at the rule
of President Bashar al-Assad.
Such attitudes are in clear conflict
with Iran's policy. Contrary to Turkish efforts to spread the Turkish
experience of secularism, Iran had scrambled, trying to seize
developments in the Arab world by likening them to Iran's Islamic
Revolution. While Turkey has officially declared that hosting the NATO
system does not target Iran, Iranians believe they are in fact its main
objective and that its primary beneficiary is the "Zionist regime." In
addition, Iran values Syria's survival as a matter of the utmost
importance and is trying to do whatever is necessary to protect it.
Syria
is Iran's greatest strategic regional ally, and Iran, together with
segments of Iraq's Shiite, with whom it shares religious connections,
has made strenuous efforts to protect Syria's regime. Turkey, meanwhile,
struggles to find a workable alternative.
This spidery network
with its alarming developments and uneven ties to Turkey is dangerous as
many Turkish interests - primarily those concerned with security and
economic concerns - are located within the triangle. Yet it holds key
mechanisms to Turkey's foreseeable future.
The triangle's
cooperation on questions of security is crucial to Turkey. Iran, Iraq
and Syria share the volatile Kurdish issue with Turkey and each can play
a part in lighting and quenching its fires. In the past, both Syria and
Iran were reportedly accused of assisting Turkish Kurds in their
struggle against the Turkish state. Indeed, Turkey could only capture
the PKK leader after Syria withdrew it backing for him. The nature of
relations between Turkey and these countries is very important to
Turkey's security concerns.
While Iran is still a crucial energy
partner for Turkey, both Syria and Iraq are budding markets for Turkish
goods and are its gates to the Arab world. Until recently, Turkey and
Syria enjoyed good trading relations, Syria being the transit country
for Turkish goods. However, as the rift between them widens Turkey plans
instead to use Iraq for the exportation of its products to regional
markets.
The current crisis in Syria and the turmoil in Iraq loom
very large in Turkey. It is deeply concerned that its worsening
relations with Syria will result in it losing Syrian cooperation and any
crackdown will result in inter-sectarian tension triggering a flood of
refugees, including the Kurds, into the demographically mosaic Turkey.
In conjunction with that, the status of Syrian Kurds - should they
obtain greater rights - would be improved, making Turkish Kurds more
jealous and motivating them to increasingly demand rights.
With
regard to Iraq, the political instability in Iraq endangers the
power-sharing process, deepens mistrust among the political factions and
widens ethnic and religious division, prompts inter-sectarian violence
and threatens Iraq's territorial integrity. While Turkey has for years
defended the territorial integrity of Iraq, the current potential for
its reality is frighteningly clear.
Iran wields influence over
Iraq, Syria and the nationalist and fundamentalist forces inside Turkey,
where, reportedly, it is able to neutralize and mobilize them. In a
series of threats Iran has accused Turkey of adopting the Western stance
towards it and Syria, and demanded that Turkey shift its policy towards
favoring Syria or face difficulties from neighboring and domestic
forces.
On the one hand Iraq's attitude towards Syria appears, to
be influenced by that of Iran, and Iranian support for Syria buttresses
the regime's confidence vis-à-vis Turkey. On the other hand,
intelligence has warned that a Quds Force may plan to attack the US
embassy or consulate in Turkey. Iraq's turmoil has become apparent and
recently the Turkish embassy in Iraq came under attack. Despite the fact
that the intention is not to hold any side accountable for that, the
late events took place amid the increasingly chilly atmosphere between
Turkey and the triangle.
The developments in Iran, Syria and Iraq,
the rise of tension between them and Turkey and the process of fence
mending are Turkey's major current challenges. Though Turkey is ready to
do whatever is necessary to resume talks on Iran's nuclear program, the
ties between Turkey and Iran remain uneven. Nevertheless, Turkey needs
to gain Iranian cooperation over Iraq and Syria to protect its interests
and because it cannot afford losing allies. On Iraq, the political
factions should be encouraged and pushed for keeping a broad-based
government. Syria remains a special case.
By Idrees Mohammed
www.middle-east-online.com
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