Nigeria’s presidential vote marred by prospect of violence
KADUNA, Nigeria — Voting began here Saturday morning in the most divisive election since Nigeria emerged from military rule 16 years ago. But hovering over the polls were fears that violence could come from two disparate sources: Boko Haram insurgents and voters angered by the defeat of their candidate.
By early afternoon, a car bomb had exploded in southern Enugu state, and voting irregularities raised concerns about a timely and accurate result. But mostly, Nigerians waited in long lines to participate in an election that has enormous implications not just for Africa’s most populous country but for much of the continent.
In this northern state, which experienced violence after 2011’s presidential election, voters came out in droves to vote for the opposition candidate, former military dictator Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari. His supporters expressed a commitment to a peaceful poll this time but also a certainty that Buhari would defeat the incumbent, President Goodluck Jonathan.
“If Jonathan wins unfairly, this will be a country at war,” said Nura Hussaini, who stood in line for his accreditation on the morning of the election — the first step in a lengthy voting process that probably will not end until Saturday night.
The country already is at war with Boko Haram, an insurgency that has grown steadily since 2012 to the point where its influence extended across northeastern Nigeria. A multinational counteroffensive has severely weakened the group in recent weeks.
The bomb in Enugu state, which did not kill anyone, made clear Saturday that insurgents still retain the capacity to wage guerrilla-style attacks. Witnesses said Boko Haram gunmen forced three northeastern polling stations to be abandoned, the Associated Press reported. But there was much less violence than many expected.
“We’ve all been affected by Boko Haram here. People have lost sons and brothers. We are voting for a government that will do more,” said Huwaila Umar, a Buhari supporter.
An incumbent has never lost a Nigerian presidential contest, and pre-election polls show a dead heat between Buhari and Jonathan. That has raised concerns about a violent reaction no matter who wins. In 2011, in a much less contentious race between the same candidates, about 1,000 people were killed in post-election bloodshed.
Already, Buhari’s party has said that if Jonathan is declared the victor, it will set up a “parallel government.”
The Nigerian army’s chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Kenneth Minimah, issued a warning at a news conference, saying that anyone who provokes violence will meet “organized violence” from authorities.
“The elections have the potential to be profoundly destabilizing. If the country degenerates into widespread violence, that has an impact across West Africa,” said John Campbell, a former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria who is now at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.
In Kaduna, many voters grew frustrated when election materials arrived late — or didn’t arrive at all — a flaw that they saw as a government attempt to keep them from voting.
“It’s a deliberate attempt to disenfranchise us because they know this is an opposition enclave,” said Danazumi Zakari, the chairman of the development association in Danbushia village.
Zakari stood with hundreds of others in front of a local elementary school that was supposed to serve as a polling site. But by noon, five hours after many voters had arrived, there were still no voting materials. Reports from Nigeria’s south, which is predominantly pro-Jonathan, also cited voting irregularities, suggesting that flaws were systemic and not politically calculated.
Boko Haram is one of many issues on which the election will turn. Oil production, which accounts for 70 percent of Nigeria’s economy, is no longer as profitable as it once was because prices have plunged.
Corruption plagues many of the country’s public institutions. An ethnic and religious divide is already pronounced between the mostly Muslim north and the Christian south. Buhari is Muslim, whereas Jonathan is Christian.
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