Government-PKK peace talks in Turkey mean return to full-scale conflict unlikely in six-month outlook
Turkish officials and Kurdish leaders are struggling to salvage peace talks to end a 30-year insurgency by the outlawed PKK (Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan).
Jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan has drafted a proposal to finalise the peace process within 4-5 months. According to Turkish press reports, the proposal establishes steps to be taken towards the right of return of PKK militants, a permanent ceasefire, and constitutional reform. The government has not yet responded.
The resolution process, as it is known in Turkish, came to the verge of collapse following the siege of Kobanê in Syria in September, and Turkey's apparent reluctance to support Kurdish fighters battling the Islamic State offensive. In October, 36 people died in riots in Turkey as Kurds protested government inaction against the Islamic State, with PKK-affiliated militants staging attacks against Turkish security personnel and Turkish jets bombing PKK targets. Although the security situation has improved since, the peace process remains fragile.
Despite recent complications, both sides have much to lose from a total collapse of the peace talks. Kurds are battling Islamic State militants in Syria and are unlikely to allow another front against the Turkish Armed Forces. Similarly, the Turkish government has invested substantial political capital in the peace process and the re-emergence of conflict would greatly harm their prospects for the parliamentary elections next summer.
FORECAST
It is therefore unlikely that widespread violence will re-emerge until then, besides isolated instances of independent groups staging attacks on government personnel and assets across Turkey's southeast. Recently targeted assets include state schools and public buses in urban centres, subjected mainly to arson and stone-throwing. However, in accordance with its electoral interests, the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi: AKP) is unlikely to satisfy Öcalan's constitutional demands, given the risk of alienating its nationalist constituency. Long term, this casts a shadow on the likelihood of a permanent cessation of conflict. At their height, PKK-related incidents included indiscriminate attacks on civilians and state infrastructure such as oil pipelines and road constructions.
Comments