Catalan separatists face poll setback


A survey has revealed that Artur Mas's party can expect to pick up 57 to 59 seats in Catalonia’s 135-member parliament. Photograph: Jaume Sellart/EPA
The Catalan president leading the region's fiercest challenge for independence in decades will be weakened after Sunday's elections, according to a survey for the Guardian.

Artur Mas's party will fall short of the overall majority he is seeking at the polls to back a referendum on whether the region should stay as part of Spain, according to the survey by the Sigma Dos polling group. In fact, it predicts the party will actually win fewer seats than in the last election two years ago.

Spanish law forbids publication of opinion polls inside Spain in the week before elections, but the Sigma Dos survey revealed Mas's Convergència i Unió (CiU) can expect to pick up 57 to 59 seats in Catalonia's 135-member parliament, down from 62 at present and below the 68it needs to govern without reaching deals with other parties.

Likely joint runners-up, the Socialists (PSC) and the People's Party (PP), are predicted to win 21-22 seats each, but both are firmly opposed to independence for the rich but indebted region. The Esquerra (ERC) party is forecast to win 16 seats, and while it has long favoured independence its left-wing policies have usually put it at odds with the conservative CiU.

José Miguel de Elías, director at the polling company, noted that CiU's ratings had fallen steadily since Mas called for early elections in September, prompted by 1.5 million people flocking to an independence rally in Barcelona.

"The independence issue helped poll ratings at first, but as time has gone by and people have seen that independence has many problems, it has come to be detrimental," he said.

Spain's central government has said a referendum among Catalan residents alone would be anti-constitutional, and it would appeal to the constitutional court, which blocked a similar proposed plebiscite in the Basque Country in 2008.

Other potential stumbling blocks are whether a fledgling Catalonia could remain within the EU and the euro. European commission president José Manuel Barroso said last weekend that EU treaties would require any breakaway state to join the queue for membership.

A separate survey by Catalan government-funded research group CEO recently estimated 57% of Catalans would vote to split from Spain. However, Sigma Dos showed that many would be reluctant to part with the Spanish language, passports or the football of its Primera Liga.

If Catalonia were to become independent, then 50.9% would want dual Catalan-Spanish nationality and only 25.2% would be happy with just a Catalan passport, while 17.9% would stay on as foreign residents but keep Spanish nationality.

A majority of 66.3% said they would like to see Castilian, Spain's most widely spoken language, maintain equal status with Catalan, with 8% rejecting any official status for Castilian.

Meanwhile 38.1% of those polled hoped Lionel Messi and his Barça team-mates would continue to play in Spain's lucrative first division, along with cross-town rivals Espanyol, as opposed to 22.7% who wanted a new Catalan football league.

Many Catalans back independence because the region has its own distinct language and culture, and think they would be better off without Spain because some estimates show they pay more in tax than they get back from the central government.

While Catalonia is the wealthiest region in Spain, it has also racked up the most debt with the central government and in August had to ask Madrid for a €5bn (£4bn) bailout.
Source http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/22/catalan-separatists-poll

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