FARC's pledges to be taken with a pinch of salt David Roberts

There is good reason to be skeptical about the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia's (FARC's) announcement that it will halt "extortionate" kidnappings and release 10 military officials it is holding. It is, after all, not the first time the guerrilla/terrorist/insurgent/rebel group (whatever you wish to call them) has made similar noises, only to revert to the old tactics once the publicity died down.

On the other hand, if the FARC is true to its word and actually follows up with concrete actions, the latest announcement could be a step in the right direction, possibly laying the ground for a settlement to the nearly 50-year conflict. That would be of great benefit to Colombia and the region as a whole, and particularly to industries such as hydrocarbons and mining - where Colombia has huge potential but which have been hurt more than most by the security shortfalls in the country in recent decades.

The FARC have all but lost any ideological credibility they may once have had, resorting to kidnapping and drug trafficking as a way to make money, without any serious pretensions to impose the Marxist state they, at least in name, aspire to. What is more, they are militarily weak, as recent governments have made significant progress in containing the rebels, and have eliminated several of its leaders, the latest being Guillermo Sáenz, nom de guerre Alfonso Cano, late last year. Estimates put the FARC's numbers at around 8,000, half what they were 10 years ago.

President Juan Manuel Santos, who has adopted a slightly more conciliatory tone compared to his predecessor Álvaro Uribe, has left the door open to a peace settlement with the group, along with the marginally more politicized ELN, if certain conditions are met a priori. Those include an end to kidnappings (and not just those aimed at extortion and profiteering, but politically motivated ones too), release of all those being held, no more drug trafficking and a halt to terrorist activities, along with demobilization and disarmament. In practice, that would leave the FARC without a raison d'être.

The question is, why, given the lucrative narcotics and kidnapping business the FARC is engaged in, would they agree to those conditions? What would they get in return? Maybe an exchange of prisoners, pardons and a chance to engage in civil and political life. Let us not forget that that is exactly what happened with Colombian guerrilla group M-19 in the 1980s, while Uruguay's President José Mujica and Brazil's Dilma Rousseff are both erstwhile left-wing guerrillas, and El Salvador's ruling party is the former umbrella guerrilla group Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front. So clearly, a political solution is possible if the FARC accept that they cannot win the civil war, and renounce violence and drug trafficking. But given the group's defunct and decrepit ideology, convincing the FARC that peace is in their own best interests is going to be an even tougher nut to crack.

Source http://www.bnamericas.com/opinion_piece.jsp?idioma=I¬icia=1464183