Terrorism in Spain The end of ETA?

THE mise-en-scène chosen by the leaders of ETA, the armed Basque separatist group, for their video declaration yesterday was very familiar. Three people wearing floppy Basque berets and white silk masks with small eyeholes sat at a table in front of flags symbolising the independent country they want to create. Just like they have done in every announcement they have made in recent years.

But the message was radically new. ETA, the spokespeople said, was giving up the armed fight. It wanted talks with the Spanish and French governments “with the aim of addressing the resolution of the consequences of the conflict and, thus, to overcome the armed confrontation.”

Reaction in the Basque country was, generally, euphoric. “The nightmare is over,” said Iñigo Urkullu, leader of the moderate Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), the region's biggest political party.

So is this the end of more than four decades of separatist violence in Spain's northerly Basque region? Are ETA and terrorism finally removed from the national debate?

Not yet. First of all, there is no guarantee that violence will not reappear under a different guise. People close to José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Spain's Socialist prime minister, know this well. Just as the IRA in Northern Ireland spawned small breakaway groups determined to stick to terrorism, a small but still violent “Real ETA” could appear.

And ETA's declaration, although historic, mentions neither dissolution nor disarmament. It talks, instead, of how “the recognition of the Basque country and the respect for the will of the people should prevail over imposition.” That means ETA will try to use what little weight it still has to push for self-determination, or a variant thereof—something Spain's constitution does not envisage.

On Monday a group of international peace “mediators”, led by former Kofi Annan, the former UN chief, and including Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams, issued a five-point declaration on the Basque question. Yesterday ETA said it considered this “an initiative of enourmous significance”.

But ending the violence and asking for talks “to address exclusively the consequences of the conflict” was only one of the five points. The others included an acceptance by Spain and France of such talks. This has not yet happened.

Mr Annan's group also suggested “that non-violent actors and political representatives meet and discuss political and other related issues, in consultation with the citizenry, that could contribute to a new era without conflict”. ETA will almost certainly take that to mean that some of its political complaints must be addressed. Few Spaniards would agree with them.

Finally, the members of the Annan group suggested that “international facilitators” encourage dialogue between ETA and the Spanish government, while they themselves form a committee “to follow up” their own recommendations.

The Annan declaration enjoyed backing from the likes of Jimmy Carter and Tony Blair. It is unlikely that such dignitaries would have lent their names to the document had it not previously been welcomed (in private) by Mr Zapatero.

But it will not be Mr Zapatero's job to talk to ETA. Spain holds a general election on November 20th, which will almost certainly bring Mariano Rajoy's opposition conservative People's Party to power.

Mr Rajoy welcomed the end of violence yesterday. But he also pointed out that Spaniards were “freer today because [ETA's] announcement came without any kind of political concession.” Spaniards would not feel fully secure, he warned, until they saw the group's “irreversible dissolution and dismantling.” But he was vague about how that might come about.

The best news for Mr Rajoy, apart from the disappearance of violence, is that the political leaders of the so-called “Basque separatist left” (as ETA's allies call themselves) are now firmly ascendant over the men and women of violence. And although they come from a movement that spurns individual leadership, preferring group decision-making, key figures have stepped up to drive the peace process forward.

People like Rufino Etxeberria and Arnaldo Otegi have shown that they can carry the whole movement with them. It helps their standing with ETA that both have seen the inside of prison cells (Mr Otegi is still serving jail time). The responsibility for what happens next falls as much on their shoulders as on those of Mr Rajoy.

Source: Economist