IGAD warns of terrorism risk in Libya bombings
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Gaddafi supporters shout slogans in front of the Libyan Cultural Centre in Tunis, Tunisia, while holding portraits of the Libyan strongman during a demonstration against the coalition’s attacks. Photo/AFP
Posted Wednesday, March 23 2011 at 00:00Eastern Africa’s risk profile is set to rise following continuing bombing of Libya by the US and its allies, with regional security and development group IGAD saying attacks on Col Muammar Gaddafi’s strongholds could spark the formation of new terrorist groups in Africa.
IGAD —the Intergovernmental Authority on Development with a membership of seven countries— is already battling with al-Shabaab, a terrorist group that is fighting to overthrow the Somali government and which staged deadly bombing attacks in Uganda in 2010 that killed 78 people.
“Our fear is that what is happening now in Libya may motivate terrorist groups in Somalia, Afghanistan and Iraq to regroup on African soil,” said IGAD secretary-general Mahbub Moalim. IGAD members are Kenya, Djibouti, Somalia, Eritrea, Sudan, Ethiopia and Uganda.
The attacks against Libya have been condemned by South Africa, Namibia, Uganda and Zimbabwe whose leaders said they were meant to achieve a “regime change” and not the intended the goal of “protecting civilians” as envisaged by the UN Security Council resolution passed last week.
“In Libya, they are quite eager to impose a no-fly zone. In Bahrain and other areas where there are pro-Western regimes, they turn a blind eye to the very same conditions or even worse conditions,” said Ugandan president Yoweri Museveni.
Uganda is one of the countries contributing troops to the cash-strapped African Union mission in Somalia, AMISOM, in a country where terrorists kill civilians almost every day, taking advantage of a weak government.
Security analysts have warned that a lack of a post-bombing plan by the allies could leave Libya in a situation of a civil war and questioned the ability of the dissenting tribes to form a coalition to take over power, citing their deep historical hostilities.
IGAD said political instability in North Africa has disoriented migrant workers from IGAD and has reduced remittances coming from North Africa.
“Household incomes that depend on remittances from workers in North Africa have been affected,” said Mr Moalim, who also sits in the closed-door sessions of the African Union Commission.
Libya has been a magnet for migrant workers because of its well- paying economy that is driven by petrol-dollars.
IGAD said forced regime change in Libya could disrupt bilateral relations with the member countries that will require new resources to be renegotiated.
Libya borders Tunisia, Algeria, Niger, Chad, Sudan and Egypt all of which would be affected by the security and humanitarian consequences of a full blown war in Libya.
Although African Union supported the resolution authorising enforcement of a no-fly zone over Libya, it has opposed the manner of its enforcement by aerial bombing of Libya’s air force defence, and other security facilities including an attack on President Muammar Gaddafi’s compound on Monday.
Libyan authorities said 48 civilians had died by Monday from the bombings although the allegations were not independently verified.
The attack is being carried out by an alliance of 11 states including the US, France, Great Britain as well as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates under UN Resolution 1973.
Analyst George Friedman, the director of global intelligence company STRATFOR said the protection of the rebels from Gaddafi’s vengeance and attacks on facilities under Gaddafi’s control logically leads to the conclusion that the alliance wants regime change.
“The West is now supporting a diverse and sometimes mutually hostile group of tribes and individuals, bound together by hostility to Gaddafi and not much else,” he said. “It is possible that over time they could coalesce into a fighting force, but it is far more difficult imagining them defeating Gaddafi’s forces any time soon, much less governing Libya together. There are simply too many issues between them. It is, in part, these divisions that allowed Gaddafi to stay in power as long as he did.”
He said the removal of Gaddafi‘s air force and the reduction in his ability to move conventional military vehicles will not necessarily mean that the rebels will advance to take over the government in Tripoli because while loyalist forces have proved dedicated and capable; the opposition’s forces have not.
Security analyst Hubertus Hoffmann, the President of the World Security Network Foundation said Libya requires a Truth and Reconciliation Commission like that of South Africa to investigate all incidents of the past and bring together opponents around one table.
“Reconciliation with Gaddafi supporters must also be included in the political manifesto to avoid a civil war. Most medium level current civil servants must, for the time being, remain in their posts in order to avoid chaos like in Iraq. All contracts with foreign businesses must remain in force,” he said.
smbogo@ke.nationmedia.com
Comments
Separation ?!!!! thats Bullcrap !! if that happens we can just say good bye to whomever lives in the western side,,,, shit if that happens he will start terrorizing the eastren side soon after the coalition leaves anyways, his history of long reach terror left marks in LONDON, lockerbie, ect. no libyan is going to sit back and accept anyways.
we all stood up from east to west in libya, and its not fair for our families in the western side to still live under that psycho.
please be wiser, a terrorist is a terrorist do not gift him with compromises that only benefits him, he need to be punished for his crimes against humanity.