Pakistan: Messages of Restless Militancy
Dubious Army Operations Backfiring? | |||||
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The brazen attack, followed by a suicide attack near the troubled valley of Swat killing 42 people, is a clear indication that the loud-mouthed interior minister Rehman Malik’s claim that the security forces operations in Swat, and the northern tribal belt have been influential, is incorrect to a large extent. In fact, it shows that Taliban militants are still fully capable of carrying out daring attacks even in the heartland of the country’s most powerful institution. Army commandos fought and bravely saved the lives of many hostages, however the message that had already been delivered by then was that Taliban are not on the run, but instead, they are flexing their muscles to take on the army to new fronts. The attack on the army headquarters has washed away whatever the doubts left vis-à-vis an imminent operation in the troubled region of Waziristan, which has been a long-time demand of the United States. Interior Minister, Rehman Malik, and the army’s spokesman, Major General Ather Abbas, have reiterated various times that Tehrike-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP) Baitullah Mehsud network is the root-cause of terrorism in the country, and it must be rooted out. There are voices, not only in Waziristan, demanding that a military operation should also be launched in the southern parts of Punjab province, the country’s most populous and richest province. The international media has been highlighting the so-called presence of a large number of militants belonging to different outlawed militant organizations, like Jesh-e-Mohammad, and Lashkar-e-Tayyeba and their hideouts.
Successful Operations? A large number of army troops have already been engaged in maintaining law and order in the minerals-rich southwestern Balochistan province, which borders Afghanistan and Iran, to stem a separatist movement. Quetta, the capital of Balochistan, does not merely continue to make headlines but has also succeeded in finding a place in much-debated Kerry Lugar aid bill. The international media while quoting US officials, including Vice President Joe Biden on record, has been claiming for last many moths that Taliban Supreme Leader Mullah Omer is holed up in Quetta, where he is planning the armed attacks on the NATO troops in Afghanistan. The US officials threaten that they may order for drone attacks on Quetta to destroy the Taliban leadership, which according to them has been running the entire Taliban network from there. An incessant wave of drone attacks on South and North Waziristan, which border northeastern province of Paktia, Paktika, and Khost, has already turned out to be counterproductive. According to Pentagon officials, 16 members of Al Qaeda, and Taliban militants, including the most-wanted Baitullah Mehsud have been killed in over 60 drone attacks during last one year in South and North Waziristan, whereas, Pentagon officials admit that around 1, 200 civilians have lost their lives in the said attacks. Those who know the Pushtun society, should tell the US and Pakistan governments that Pushtun cannot live without revenge. Badal or revenge is an inseparable part of centuries-long Pushtunwali code, under which a Pushtun has to take revenge if any of his family members is killed.
Indiscriminate Drone Attacks I am an eyewitness of a ceremony in which some 300 youths of Bajur agency had volunteered themselves as would-be suicide bombers after a US drone attack in November 2007 on a madrassah (Islamic school) and nearby houses in which 80 people, mostly children and women were killed. This was not the first or last ceremony. Every drone attack is killing two militants, but creating 10 would-be suicide bombers, who cannot reach US to avenge, but Pakistanis, and their security forces are soft targets for them. Keeping the above mentioned facts in mind, one does not has to be genius to paint the future picture of Pakistan. More and much harder days are waiting. The army has almost finalized its preparations to launch a full-fledged military onslaught on Waziristan against Taliban militants led by Baitullah’s Mehsud’ successor, Hakeemullah Mehsud, and two other commanders, Hafiz Gul Bahaudr, and Mullah Nazir, who belongs to Dawar, and Wazir tribes respectively. The two commanders had earlier been considered pro-government, and had always been against attacks within Pakistan. Their concentration was totally on Afghanistan, but thanks to drone attacks, which have united the warring Taliban groups against Pakistan army. Though, the government downplays the reports that it has to withdraw troops from the country’s eastern border along its arch nuclear rival India, in order to open new fronts in South and North Waziristan, south Punjab, and other tribal areas. However, according to security experts, it is very much likely because a large number of troops is already involved in operations in Swat, and its four adjoining districts, a sprawling Balochistan. Besides, some 80,000 troops are detailed along the 2200 KM long porous border along neighboring Afghanistan. Security analysts are of a unanimous view that the army will have to face a much harder time in Waziristan as compared to Swat. This region has had a long history of guerilla wars against foreign aggressors, who could not control the locals through military means. The area is encircled by untamable mountains that provide a natural cover to the guerillas. Pakistanis still remember the fierce battles between Taliban and the army in 2004, which ended on a peace agreement between the two sides. The agreement, however, could not work as a US missile on the very next day hit commander Naik Mohammad, then the head of Taliban in the region. In case of drone attacks on Quetta, the situation will further deteriorate for Pakistan as it will exacerbate militancy in Balochistan, which is the second major route to NATO supplies. Security experts apprehend that in case of fresh military operations, the country should get ready for a serious backlash as Taliban are not ready to give up.
Confusion A total confusion grips the entire nation vis-à-vis war on terror. Not only the common people, but also the country’s intelligentsia stands virtually divided over the issue. There are two views in this regard, which have their own pros and cons. One group of intelligentsia has a sheer belief that "This is our war", and "we have to win". But this group does not answer various questions like whether militancy has increased or decreased following use of force? Where were these suicide bombers before 9/11? Under which law, Pakistan has attacked a sovereign country, Afghanistan? If Pakistan hands over its soil to US forces to attack a sovereign country, then why not the people of that country have the right to pay back in the same coin? And last but not least how long will this war go on? Supporters of the second opinion think that dialogue is the only solution to the problem. But the track record proves that talks too have failed to resolve the crisis. And the recent peace agreement in Swat is an eloquent testimony of the fact. The government had accepted the major demand of the people there and announced the enforcement of Shari’ah judicial system in the region, but militants, in a complete violation of the agreement, refused to lay down their arms forcing the security forces to launch a massive operation against them in May. This is true that there has been a third force, i.e. America, which has violated various peace agreements, but apart from that, there is a least possibility that Taliban would have surrendered in the wake of the said agreements. The major bone of contention between Pakistan and the Taliban is that the former wants the latter not to infiltrate in Afghanistan, where Pushtuns are fighting outside aggressors. The Taliban can accept any other demand rather than this one. Pushtuns cannot sit idle if their "brothers" fight. They have no other option but to fight alongside their brothers. The equation is very simple to understand. America pushes Pakistan to control infiltration into Afghanistan, and the Pakistani troops pushes Taliban not to infiltrate, and the Taliban hit back at the Pakistani army as this condition is unacceptable to them. Pakistan is fighting the cheapest war of its history on behalf of America. The United States has been spending 100 billion dollars and 60 billion dollars annually in Iraq and Afghanistan respectively, whereas Pakistan is fighting the US war only for 1.5 billion dollars, which too, will be released after it shows a durable commitment to fight terrorism. The tripled-aid bill has shaken the entire political setup at this critical juncture when the country is almost at war. The powerful army, unusually, expressed its anger over the controversial Kerry Lugar bill publicly. Political observers say that the army could have registered its protest at appropriate forums, but it deliberately did that publicly sending a clear message to Asif Zardari-led civilian government, which has been dubbing the approval of this bill by the US Congress and Senate as a great diplomatic success. Ties between army and civilian governments have always been bitter during the 62-year long checkered history of this South Asian nuclear Muslim state. But this time, the country cannot afford this cold war, especially when the army is going to launch more operations. If the ongoing tussle between the two pillars of the state goes on. If it happens, political pundits fear it may derail the democracy once again as the ongoing chaos, suicide bombings, rampant corruption, and bad governance will once again misguide the people of Pakistan to accept that. And that would be another unfortunate. | |||||
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